Can We Really Predict Radio Propagation ?

Strange Propagation ?

I guess by now, we all know as Amateur Radio Operators ... 

Solar Weather and Radio Propagation

 is very hard to predict.

Below is this past weekends observation & forecast :

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05

Serial Number: 676

Issue Time: 2011 Feb 05 0020 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 675

Valid From: 2011 Feb 04 1930 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2011 Feb 04 0330 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

 & 

SolarCycle24.org ......

On Friday February 4, 2011 recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole #436(#433) was in geo-effective (Earth facing) position and impacted Earth's magnetic field in a negative manner, producing a Kp of 6 (moderate geomagnetic storming conditions).

The end result was a reduction in the F2 layer maximum usable frequency (MUF) that negatively effected propagation conditions on 10, 12 and 15 meters.

.........

Notice the predicted END RESULT on 10-12 & 15 ?

I'm certainly no expert on Solar Weather ...

But I have noticed over the years 

that at the onset of high solar activity

we sometimes tend to have enhanced HF conditions

 on the Ham Bands for a day or so!!

This past weekend was no exception !!!

Over the weekend I worked 21 new band countries on 7 different bands

Below is my list from this weekend :

10 Meters 

TR8 - Gabon

VP8 - South Orkney

12 Meters 

J79 - Dominica

TJ3 - Cameroon

TR8 - Gabon

HP1 - Panama

LU7 - Argentina

VP8 - S. Orkney

KH2 - Guam

17 Meters

PJ4 - Bonaire

VP2 - Montserrat

20 Meters

PJ4 - Bonaire

30 Meters

PJ2 - Curacao

VP8 - S. Orkney

XT - Burkina Faso

S9 - Sao Tome

A4 - Oman

C6 - Bahamas

A3 - Tonga

40 Meters

TJ3 - Cameroon

160 Meters

VP8 - S. Orkney

All I can say is .... What a fun weekend on the Radio !!

Notice that's new band countries 

all the way from 10 meters to 160 meters ... Wow !!

I'm just wondering if anyone else noticed these Enhanced conditions

 this past weekend ?

73 de N4LA

Get

 RADIO-ACTIVE !!